I'm getting sick of the "r" word myself. Save the Chicken Little act for a real emergency.
Logan
· 1 year ago
Yeah, but ugh, does it have to be Dvorak that's right? Can I just say it was Rose and leave it at that?
Micahel
· 1 year ago
Thank You! I've had to explain this to way to many people.
Glad someone agrees!
zoostation
· 1 year ago
How can you write an article on an impending recession and not even mention the credit crisis once? Maybe you should get your head out of the Web 2.0 world, that you live in, for 5 seconds and take a look at the state of the global economy and the ailing US housing market that is the catalyst.
The US credit crisis has already impacted the UK market with RBS announcing they'll need their shareholders to bail them out to the tune of $40 Billion.
And using Microsoft as an example is just plain stupid. If anyone has spare cash it's Microsoft. Do you think it's a coincidence that they are interested in Yahoo now, when things look gloomy? Do you think it's a coincidence that they aren't in a hurry either? If the US economy avoids a recession through further Fed Reserve intervention, I think Microsoft will walk away. Otherwise they will wait it out until Yahoo cave. Microsoft are taking advantage of the credit crisis.
Cathy Stucker
· 1 year ago
Thank you for this. I am so weary of hearing the gloom-and-doom crowd talk about how awful everything is and how the economy stinks.
If things are so bad, why is rush hour so congested? How come I can not get a parking space at the mall? It seems to me that people are working and spending, the same as always.
The media are determined to serve up scare after scare. We are all going to lose our jobs, our homes, and our gas-guzzling SUVs, and now we are going to starve to death because Costco is rationing rice sales. But that's OK, because global warming is going to kill all of us soon, anyway.
Get a grip, folks. If we had a decent education system in this country the media and scaremongering politicians would not be able to get away with this. People would understand economics and would have the sense to question some of the things we are told as "truth."
Alexander Stone
· 1 year ago
As a matter of fact, you are right about the "slow growth", but the underlying analyze is somewhat as inaccurate as the inflational use of the recession term. The truth is indeed that America is very close to step into a recession. This idea comes from the fact that the fundamental economic data of the US is really bad...did you ever have a look on it, before writing this post??
Slow growth, or even worse, recession - the consequences will hit the web business with a delay.
Let's talk again in a year, and you might probably have changed your mind.
Pinky
· 1 year ago
Thank you, thank you, MASHABLE - for addressing the "R" word with facts and common sense. The republicans do enough damage with their fear-based rhetoric.
Well said Cathy Stucker!
nathania
· 1 year ago
Pinky, the Democrats have been the primary ones crying Recession. In fact, they bring a ton of fear-based politics.
William Addington
· 1 year ago
Both parties have been throwing out the recession word. The word fear is rightfully used in this situation.
Jeremy Dixon
· 1 year ago
I've got a "R" word for you...Refreshing, that's what this post was for me as I was perusing my morning reading.
Paul Montgomery
· 1 year ago
Rizzn, you invoked the dictionary definition of recession, and then proved yourself wrong by failing to adhere to that definition. GDP PPP is influenced by exchange rates, so the only reason that it has continued to rise is that the US dollar is in freefall, thus making imports to the US cheaper. The US economy is most likely in recession right now, by the strict definition of the word which you cited - it's just that the metrics are lagging behind. The fact that GDP PPP is still rising is actually a bad thing economically in this case, because it means Americans are more likely to buy imported goods and ignore locally-produced goods, thus exacerbating the problem.
Please, if you're going to comment on economic matters, show us that you have a grasp of basic economic theory. Don't just pander to the LCD.
Bob
· 1 year ago
Paul, having a weaker US dollar means that imports from other countries cost more. The benefit of a weaker dollar is that when we export our products, they are cheaper to other countries.
Buying imports is not a bad thing. It lowers the overall price for consumers and increases competition. The US is mostly a service based economy.
Bjoern Weidlich
· 1 year ago
Thank you, Paul! Guys, shit is hitting the fan in the U.S. The fed is running around with their heads on fire bailing out banks. You guys know how to report about Web 2.0 news but just leave economics to the pros.
-Bjoern
Troed SÃ¥ngberg
· 1 year ago
Well. You're technically correct, but the GDP numbers are carefully selected to not show a recession! If real numbers are calculated, that use the real inflation numbers instead of the interesting but not exactly truthful except-this-and-that inflation, then the story changes.
Technically, it's not a recession we're in by the most rudimentary definition of the word. I think the reason the word is being thrown around is partly due to election year politics and due to the poor state of affairs of Americans that don't live in Silicon Valley. Add to this fairly sluggish growth, the weak dollar, and the credit crisis, and you've got the makings of a pretty poor economic picture.
It's a class issue, and for high-rent geeks, the R-word is poison, but for everybody else, it's a reality. So, Mark, you're probably right, but it's a depressing, elite kind of right that isn't feasible in the long term.
Charlie Key
· 1 year ago
I would just like to add that looking at the data that was announced today the country is still not even in the beginnings of a recession is is most likely never actually going to get there considering the fed's recent moves to cut the federal funds rate again and the stimulus package. In my opinion, a simple MBA student, we have more of a chance of rebounding too heavily from the slow down and landing in a inflationary gap rather than actually hitting a recession. Just my 2 cents.
Independent
· 1 year ago
The only way to conclude we haven't already had two quarters of negative growth is to hold on to the myth that inflation is moving at a 2% annual rate. Obviously, if you buy things like fuel & food you know that inflation is a bit worse than that...
Anyway, the banks are broke but its ok! The federal reserve has the money backed up and your deposits are safe thanks to a big loan from big brother. http://www.undergroundpolitics.com/index.php/ma...
freewheeler
· 1 year ago
Troed SÃ¥ngberg is exactly right. Do not be so trusting of government figures, they have every incentive to skew them. The way they calculate Real GDP is they take the Nominal GDP and back out the inflation. Thus, if you understate inflation, you overstate the growth. The inflation numbers being reported by the government are laughable. Years back, they changed the way the calculate the inflation figures. If you use their old, more accurate, but still understated methods, there is negative growth.
Also, understand this is the tip of the iceberg. This is not fear-mongering. If you truly understand what caused the Great Depression, you would see we have created an eerily similar environment. Remember though, recessions are simply corrections, badly needed ones at that. They are the brush fires that prevent the superfires. It was the government's intervention in the 30's (see New Deal, not allowing wages to adjust downward, etc.) that turned the recession of 1929 into the Depression.
If you then understand all this, you will become very concerned with the recent actions of the Fed (further lowering rates/bailing out) and the government's 'stimulus package' and other attempts to make it look like they are 'doing something' vs. doing nothing.
You are doing a dangerous thing by rocking people back to sleep.
Blame Scoble. He started all of this recession talk...
BXS
· 1 year ago
Don't call it the "R" word ??. Don't kid yourself. Our Economy by any other name would still stink as Recession ridden. Pro or Against War in Iraq, for One, this is the election year and the White House and the intending Republicans and the face saving Republicans will all want to delay saying it is recession, so that it does not bite them in the butt if recession takes place because of the negligent present government, and they should stand a chance to loose the national election. Second, in the same side of the spectrum is the wall street gurus who try to persuade every one that this trend is for a short period and would not call it a recession. They have to watch out for their own selfish interest, not the interest of the country by delaying admitting of the fact and yelling, this is no recession. They are interested in bullish vision, and the portrayal of bullish vision. Just listen to them in their commentaries week after week and month after month, harping on the same idiocracy. You can try formulating any formulas for your expertise of, and the meaning of Recession. But Recession is not taking a 180 degree turn upward soon. Housing market, the woes of mortgage, unprecedented inflation. Many businesses going bust, or about to, are all signs of worst days in decades. Don't try to con me into thinking the expert economists and their so called "Watch" of expertise in evaluating the economy; their comparision with previous quarter-year economic conditions are so called what? genuinely healthy but slowing down economy. eeYeah ! The Emporer has New Invisible Clothes. Get this straight, "R" is here, and we americans should take steps right away into planning for alternative/re-modelling the use of our highways by either convering them to railways or making the space above or below for infrastructure to train commute. We cannot wait for single alternative to change the internal combustion engine/ a different type of engine to bring us out of recession. Also the passimists who think ethanol will bring misery to the world, oh how wrong they are. The government could step up and provide farm subsidies for growers, and encourage them to produce more guaranteeing them that all the produce will be channeled to first the food supply and also for energy use. Ofcourse it takes time for ethenol to be economical and compete with the fossil fuel, but if we do not put our mind and energies to change, woe is us. If the government does not act now, the folly of not doing anything will be anything but harmful. And lets not forget there are "sick-interested" persons who wish the price of oil should rocket high to a point of oblivion. No, I am not an economist, but common sense can guide us all. Lets start positive now, ITS NOW OR NEVER, so do the right thing Governors, Senators, Congressmen and even the Supreme Court, who is not directly involved in the making of laws, but should be ready to strike down anything happening detriment to the national interest, that will bring chaos. Remember Mark Levinsen? he was, or is still (hopefully he is still alive). a great musician but his genius sought by and respected by both the musicians and the engineers. So, my point here is you can act now whether or not you are a economist.
Demisphere
· 1 year ago
Well, well -- so now we find out we've officially been in a recession since December 2007, months before this original post. Can we call it a recession now? ;-)
All Comments
I'm getting sick of the "r" word myself. Save the Chicken Little act for a real emergency.
Glad someone agrees!
The US credit crisis has already impacted the UK market with RBS announcing they'll need their shareholders to bail them out to the tune of $40 Billion.
And using Microsoft as an example is just plain stupid. If anyone has spare cash it's Microsoft. Do you think it's a coincidence that they are interested in Yahoo now, when things look gloomy? Do you think it's a coincidence that they aren't in a hurry either? If the US economy avoids a recession through further Fed Reserve intervention, I think Microsoft will walk away. Otherwise they will wait it out until Yahoo cave. Microsoft are taking advantage of the credit crisis.
If things are so bad, why is rush hour so congested? How come I can not get a parking space at the mall? It seems to me that people are working and spending, the same as always.
The media are determined to serve up scare after scare. We are all going to lose our jobs, our homes, and our gas-guzzling SUVs, and now we are going to starve to death because Costco is rationing rice sales. But that's OK, because global warming is going to kill all of us soon, anyway.
Get a grip, folks. If we had a decent education system in this country the media and scaremongering politicians would not be able to get away with this. People would understand economics and would have the sense to question some of the things we are told as "truth."
The truth is indeed that America is very close to step into a recession. This idea comes from the fact that the fundamental economic data of the US is really bad...did you ever have a look on it, before writing this post??
Slow growth, or even worse, recession - the consequences will hit the web business with a delay.
Let's talk again in a year, and you might probably have changed your mind.
Well said Cathy Stucker!
Please, if you're going to comment on economic matters, show us that you have a grasp of basic economic theory. Don't just pander to the LCD.
Buying imports is not a bad thing. It lowers the overall price for consumers and increases competition. The US is mostly a service based economy.
Guys, shit is hitting the fan in the U.S. The fed is running around with their heads on fire bailing out banks. You guys know how to report about Web 2.0 news but just leave economics to the pros.
-Bjoern
Excellent blog on the subject here: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/04/...
It's a class issue, and for high-rent geeks, the R-word is poison, but for everybody else, it's a reality. So, Mark, you're probably right, but it's a depressing, elite kind of right that isn't feasible in the long term.
Anyway, the banks are broke but its ok! The federal reserve has the money backed up and your deposits are safe thanks to a big loan from big brother.
http://www.undergroundpolitics.com/index.php/ma...
Also, understand this is the tip of the iceberg. This is not fear-mongering. If you truly understand what caused the Great Depression, you would see we have created an eerily similar environment. Remember though, recessions are simply corrections, badly needed ones at that. They are the brush fires that prevent the superfires. It was the government's intervention in the 30's (see New Deal, not allowing wages to adjust downward, etc.) that turned the recession of 1929 into the Depression.
If you then understand all this, you will become very concerned with the recent actions of the Fed (further lowering rates/bailing out) and the government's 'stimulus package' and other attempts to make it look like they are 'doing something' vs. doing nothing.
You are doing a dangerous thing by rocking people back to sleep.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A
"The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class"
So, my point here is you can act now whether or not you are a economist.