Aren't these all just prettied up versions of the Foresight Exchange (http://www.ideafutures.com/), which has been around for years? I'm not knocking them--I have always found this sort of fantasy futures market stuff facinating--but it's certainly nothing new.
(Note: I'm writing this without having seen Inkling, which seems to be down at the moment.)
steve
· 3 years ago
you want to buy stock in a Web 2.0 company? i saw that Foldera has shares trading on the OTC. the company is alot more than just web 2.0. it's been in the works for years and looks to be a real product. it was down a little today, so i might buy some. i like the reviews. or is this a little too real for you? real money. thanks
Brian Breslin
· 3 years ago
ok can someone clarify this for me. on tradesports, you buy futures in stuff, and sell it right? so how is that "better" than just betting that the Lakers will win on an online sportsbook?
and is inkling there to make $? or just make money from google ads?
Ivan Pope
· 3 years ago
One thing I would say about Inkling - the markets are created by the management. That's so Web 1.0. What about the Edge markets? Enron jail time? Price of oil? Basketball coaches? I don't think so. They need to let the users create their own markets. Then you'd have millions of micro/localised markets. Can't see it catching on at the moment.
Pete Cashmore
· 3 years ago
Ivan,
Exactly.
--
Brian,
I'm not sure about their biz model, but I seem to remember reading that they might make versions for the enterprise. I guess that means internal prediction markets, but I can't confirm.
Jack DeNeut
· 3 years ago
Brian,
Futures and other types of options have many features that make them different from a normal "binary" bet on the future outcome on an event. I can't go into the history of futures trading in a blog comment, but I can give one concrete example that might explain why someone would want to buy an option/futures contract rather than just place a bet.
The biggest difference between a futures contract and an outright bet is that a trader in futures normally doesn't hold the investment until "exercise" - that is, when the event happens.
Say that I buy a futures contract on a basketball game that will take place two months from now. I put down $500 that Team A will beat Team B by more than 7 points. A month passes, and in that month Team A has been playing poorly, and it looks far less likely that they will beat Team B by more than 7 points (i.e. that I won't cover the spread). However, Team A is still the better team, and there's still a real chance that they will, in fact, beat Team B by more than 7 points. But I don't want to wait around to see if that happens, because if it doesn't, I lose my whole $500.
So, I turn to another trader and say "I'll sell you my futures contract - Team A over B by 7, for $250". Now, I have $250 of my $500 back, and I'm no longer involved in the bet. The other trader (that bought the contract from me) is happy because he is willing to take the chance that Team A will cover the spread, especially if he gets to bet $500 on that outcome and only pay $250 for it.
It's a bit more complicated than this in practice, but this is the general idea - on a futures contract you don't normally have a binary result (win/lose).
Note: I've never traded sports futures, but I used to be an investment banker and I traded futures on other things. After taking a quick look at sports futures, they seem to follow the same model.
(far more interesting, in fact, than the non-social web applications that increasingly fall under the Web 2.0 umbrella)
AGREED -> actually, the companies that dont integrate their user into their product won't survive the web's next phase
David G
· 3 years ago
RE: "(far more interesting, in fact, than the non-social web applications that increasingly fall under the Web 2.0 umbrella)"
AGREED -> actually, the companies that dont integrate their user into their product won't survive the web's next phase
As to decision markets - this approach WILL NOT WORK - the stock exchange is already a decision market - when you build a decision market of a decision market, you need to take a different approach - we should discuss this sometime pete - I think there's real opportunity for a different angle on solving this problem
d
Pete Cashmore
· 3 years ago
David,
Sure - peer production is too fascinating *not* to talk about it.
CrowdIQ Team
· 3 years ago
We'd love to get your thoughts on CrowdIQ @ www.crowdiq.com. We're just starting out and we're trying to approach Decision Markets from a community perpsective like eBay.
Hopefully your feedback can get our trading community up and running.
Emile Servan-Schreiber
· 3 years ago
Hi Pete,
On your comment that "people just aren’t as motivated to vote (or vote in the right way) when the currency isn’t real." The data shows that this is simply not the case. Play-money prediction markets like HSX and NewsFutures have repeatedly been proven exactly as accurate, if not more, than real-money markets like Tradesports. This is not theory, it is actual published peer-reviewed data from real-world experiments. See for instance this article published in the journal "Electronic Markets": http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matte...
Pete Cashmore
· 3 years ago
Emile,
Interesting - I hadn't seen that report. Thanks for the heads up! I'm a big fan of NewsFutures - I'd be interested to talk to you sometime over Skype, Google Talk, IM or whatever.
All Comments
(Note: I'm writing this without having seen Inkling, which seems to be down at the moment.)
and is inkling there to make $? or just make money from google ads?
Enron jail time? Price of oil? Basketball coaches? I don't think so. They need to let the users create their own markets. Then you'd have millions of micro/localised markets.
Can't see it catching on at the moment.
Exactly.
--
Brian,
I'm not sure about their biz model, but I seem to remember reading that they might make versions for the enterprise. I guess that means internal prediction markets, but I can't confirm.
Futures and other types of options have many features that make them different from a normal "binary" bet on the future outcome on an event. I can't go into the history of futures trading in a blog comment, but I can give one concrete example that might explain why someone would want to buy an option/futures contract rather than just place a bet.
The biggest difference between a futures contract and an outright bet is that a trader in futures normally doesn't hold the investment until "exercise" - that is, when the event happens.
Say that I buy a futures contract on a basketball game that will take place two months from now. I put down $500 that Team A will beat Team B by more than 7 points. A month passes, and in that month Team A has been playing poorly, and it looks far less likely that they will beat Team B by more than 7 points (i.e. that I won't cover the spread). However, Team A is still the better team, and there's still a real chance that they will, in fact, beat Team B by more than 7 points. But I don't want to wait around to see if that happens, because if it doesn't, I lose my whole $500.
So, I turn to another trader and say "I'll sell you my futures contract - Team A over B by 7, for $250". Now, I have $250 of my $500 back, and I'm no longer involved in the bet. The other trader (that bought the contract from me) is happy because he is willing to take the chance that Team A will cover the spread, especially if he gets to bet $500 on that outcome and only pay $250 for it.
It's a bit more complicated than this in practice, but this is the general idea - on a futures contract you don't normally have a binary result (win/lose).
Note: I've never traded sports futures, but I used to be an investment banker and I traded futures on other things. After taking a quick look at sports futures, they seem to follow the same model.
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2006/03/writely-...
AGREED -> actually, the companies that dont integrate their user into their product won't survive the web's next phase
AGREED -> actually, the companies that dont integrate their user into their product won't survive the web's next phase
As to decision markets - this approach WILL NOT WORK - the stock exchange is already a decision market - when you build a decision market of a decision market, you need to take a different approach - we should discuss this sometime pete - I think there's real opportunity for a different angle on solving this problem
d
Sure - peer production is too fascinating *not* to talk about it.
Hopefully your feedback can get our trading community up and running.
On your comment that "people just aren’t as motivated to vote (or vote in the right way) when the currency isn’t real." The data shows that this is simply not the case. Play-money prediction markets like HSX and NewsFutures have repeatedly been proven exactly as accurate, if not more, than real-money markets like Tradesports. This is not theory, it is actual published peer-reviewed data from real-world experiments. See for instance this article published in the journal "Electronic Markets": http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matte...
Interesting - I hadn't seen that report. Thanks for the heads up! I'm a big fan of NewsFutures - I'd be interested to talk to you sometime over Skype, Google Talk, IM or whatever.