Facebook is in a very difficult position, one they've entirely created for themselves. Much of this has to do with getting into bed with Microsoft, though they didn't have a lot of choice. There's also the simple reality that social networking is not a business. It's a feature, and while it's been open to everyone as a feature for some time by way of platforms like Ning and other white label solutions, FriendConnect socialized the web for the masses by delivering both technology and audience with the flick of a switch. In this scenario, Facebook becomes just a place to store your data and socialized, neither of which constitutes a business.
The endgame for all of this feels quite familiar in a Netscape sort of way. You have a dominant player in a space (social networking and browser) that's not really a business model. You have emerging competition from large successful companies. For Facebook, it's Google and Yahoo; for Netscape it was Microsoft (IE). Just as AOL bought Netscape, Microsoft will buy Facebook for what will be a lot of dough but nowhere near $15B. We'll est $3B tops. Just as Andreesen cashed out big, so will Zuckerberg and friends. And that will mark the beginning of the end for Facebook. Microsoft will no more be able to monetize Facebook than Facebook. There will be a mass exodus of talent, developers, and users to OpenSocial. And social networking will finally be seen for what it is: a feature, one that we use every day on ever website w/o thinking of it as such. Even the term "social networking" will fade into the background as a standard part of using the web, no matter where you happen to be.
That said, if Facebook were the one to have introduced FriendConnect in the way Google has (if they truly had enough vision), things would be much different.
Michael Daehn
· 1 year ago
@Max Brilliant comment :)
Anonymous
· 1 year ago
Google has always been driven by this desire to go against the grain of hyper-selfish business practices. Though they have demonstrated to be vulnerable to some of those same practices, I believe they are driven by the idea that they will succeed because they are doing the right thing. Facebook, on the other hand, seems to be driven by the idea that they will succeed because they are so talented, intelligent, and savvy. If they don't stay hot, they will burn out immediately.
Ian
· 1 year ago
I agree that Google is the better innovator here, and they are better at disguising their monetary motives. They really want to own information, and if Friend connect works like they want it to, they will take over control of the social graph. Not only wil they know who everyone is friends with, they will know how those friends are similar and where they interact.
The problem I still have is the deluge of sites we all belong to. While friend connect is a great way for me to socialize on more of my favorite sites, it still seems to be adding to the problem. Just more sites to go check all the time - how am I going to manage the madness?
All Comments
The endgame for all of this feels quite familiar in a Netscape sort of way. You have a dominant player in a space (social networking and browser) that's not really a business model. You have emerging competition from large successful companies. For Facebook, it's Google and Yahoo; for Netscape it was Microsoft (IE). Just as AOL bought Netscape, Microsoft will buy Facebook for what will be a lot of dough but nowhere near $15B. We'll est $3B tops. Just as Andreesen cashed out big, so will Zuckerberg and friends. And that will mark the beginning of the end for Facebook. Microsoft will no more be able to monetize Facebook than Facebook. There will be a mass exodus of talent, developers, and users to OpenSocial. And social networking will finally be seen for what it is: a feature, one that we use every day on ever website w/o thinking of it as such. Even the term "social networking" will fade into the background as a standard part of using the web, no matter where you happen to be.
That said, if Facebook were the one to have introduced FriendConnect in the way Google has (if they truly had enough vision), things would be much different.
The problem I still have is the deluge of sites we all belong to. While friend connect is a great way for me to socialize on more of my favorite sites, it still seems to be adding to the problem. Just more sites to go check all the time - how am I going to manage the madness?