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But I've noticed my own on-site time and visits for facebook have gone down because I now have 3rd party apps that bring facebook to me so I rarely need to actually go to the site. Between FMenu for my Mac and Digsby for my PC at work, I get facebook a la carte on my desktop anytime I want it.
Good point about the apps - while I don't think they are mainstream enough yet to make a significant dent in traffic, it certainly will if they take off. It's similar to how FriendFeed might start to take traffic away from blogs, photo sites, Twitter, etc ...
UK for instance went from 9.8m > 10.2m
I think that all we can conclude is that the huge growth has slowed down and these small changes month on month will become the norm, as everybody who wants a Facebook account has one.
This is exaclty what happened to the Internet in the late 90s' where we had immature companies with inflated values and no real substance to back all that up. By example, Facebook quoted 250million users. The numbers in this report show the real number to be 24million. That's less than 10%
With a US depression almost a certainty I would suggest that the whole social 2.0 thing will be the biggest casualty.
It will force the industry to grow up and there will be heavy losses but coming out of the other side we will see this technolgy mature into a mainstream technology with real business models.
The only downside is that the winners will be the usual technology and media companies.
But the bigger issue is that pure social networking is not a business model. That's why LinkedIn is cranking. Everyone is there for a purpose other than to socialize. And they've leveraged that into a multiple revenue streams.
Facebook will be lucky if MS offers them $3B, and even that is ridiculous. YouTube was overpriced at $1.65B, and they still haven't figured out how to make money on it. Though it has a lot more promise than Facebook.
And why are people still arguing with the valuation of FB...this network is the most valuable portfolio for marketers in the world. Why? Because it's formal, people use it for business and personal reasons, and its robust...myspace, hi5, etc all allow you to make your page look like a damn circus with dumb nicknames as your heading...fb allows businesses to build portofolios for specific people, by location, interests, and the ability to draw certain connections i.e "brian x is interested in movies x y z and so is their friend sarah"...
sorry for ranting, but i really don't understand how you don't see the marketing potential. especially with all of the new business-savvy executives coming into play "crossing the chasm"..things will definitely progress in the short future..
Imagine for a second the day that FB actually creates a completely open API that will let developers do what they want *outside* of the FB walled garden. What type of effect would that have on their traffic?
What someone developed a FB app that allowed you to pull up your newsfeed on your iphone without ever touching Facebook.com?
What if someone created an Adobe Air app that actually made the FB product better and more efficient?
The fact that I could care less if I ever visit the Twitter website is very telling of what is to come in the social utility world. Services will be more focused on foundation functionality as opposed to user interface design.
Let people use it how, when and where they want, right?
http://clipmarks.com/clipmark/E12A9EE3-1803-44E...