HI there, I've turned some of these predictions into markets at http://askmarkets.com, you may go create your own ones and crowdsource the probability of each one of the outcomes :)
CourtneyWalsh
· 11 months ago
Adam- Nice work on the 2009 predictions. It will be interesting to see what news organizations go completely digital. I think you are spot-on with Twitter and emerging 'commenting' technology.
Adam Ostrow
· 11 months ago
@Jose ... Interesting question. If they did, they'd likely get a huge premium on what they paid ($35M), even in this depressed market.
FreidaMachoi
· 11 months ago
Well done. Great predictions and outcomes in '08 and I believe you are more on on target than not for '09. Big question that may not play itself out in '09 but one that will eventually, is the role of the network (physical last mile) and the companies that own them.
Whether MSO or Telco - or power company - how will they play in this space? What impact will the "bits for bucks" have on social media and the exponential increase in interactive/video/gaming content?
Will there be a "deal" - twitter on your TV? or will the content folks keep trying to circumvent the network owners, while those that own the networks keep trying to monetize their investment?
Kendra Kellogg
· 11 months ago
Great post! Your prediction that comments will become the new blog would do wonders for the online community and I hope this pans out soon.
My Addition: A bit complicated with three steps (and you may know if a version of this exists)
Step 1) The addition of mini-forums added to the end of blog posts. Step 2) Create a site like StumbleUpon with a NewsFeed and Wall like as Facebook (which I believe is one of its keys to growing popularity) with the ability to see our friends site/blog reviews and locations instanteously. Step 3) Then we have the ability to go to that site/blog while our friend is there and discuss the content with them in the mini-forum attached to the blog.
Tony
· 11 months ago
Forgot to mention, but on the Twitter note, this would be a great acquisition for a corporation like CNN (to replace or enhance iReport.com).
Steven Finch
· 11 months ago
These predictions are just so vague. I would have liked to seen more specifics on what might happen
Adam Ostrow
· 11 months ago
@Steven - About half are fairly specific I'd say. But I'd rather give people some useful reflections on the past year and broader trends I see for next year - stuff people can actually take advantage of - than wildly speculate over who will buy who and how many users Friendfeed will have (which is fun, but not especially useful to anyone)
Randy White
· 11 months ago
Yeah, I hear you. Great job on the predictions!
2009 will be the year of Bright Neighbor.
Doug
· 11 months ago
I don't think Yahoo would benefit from selling Flickr, also the FB/Twitter thing, it doesn't make sense for either company.
Susanne
· 11 months ago
Prediction about comments becoming the new blogs are spot on. To take it one step further many people go to blogs not because of interest in the blog but for the 'profound' comments that some logs accumulate.
Adam Ostrow
· 11 months ago
Nice to see a lot of people agree with the "comments as the news blogs" prediction. Another thought on which software could fuel this ... IntenseDebate, now as a part of Automattic. Something installable that integrates your comments from across the Web. We shall see.
Nick Mendoza
· 11 months ago
Appreciate the 2009 list - you did well last year Ostrowdamus.
Other developments that will impact us next year: - LinkedIn Surge Continues: With great recession, comes great relationships. - Mobile Video Growth: Flip becomes a verb (again). Think TiVo (no one says "DVR it"). - App Store Accelerates: More than one publisher will make at least $10MM from killer apps. - Love of Live: Online or on mobile, live video streaming hits the mainstream faster than Twitter.
Adam Ostrow
· 11 months ago
@Nick interesting, I agree on the App Store comment, adds a number to my own prediction :) I actually almost posted the opposite about live video - that most of the startups in the space would fail - but decided to focus on optimistic trends rather than doom and gloom. Just don't see revenue catching up with expenses quick enough.
cbright
· 11 months ago
Kudos on a provocative list, Adam. I think Twitter is very nearly mainstream and the adoption curve is fast. I watched CNN over the holidays and they were scrolling tweets across the bottom of Rick Sanchez's program. By the end of '09, I expect Twitter to have >80% name recognition among the general US public. Regarding newspapers, it'll take them a few more years to get it. Newspapers are very localized and there is still strong demand. I think magazines will start going away (like PC Mag) very quickly in '09 with newspapers still years away. Oh well, let's check back in a year!!
Kevin Minott
· 11 months ago
I also agree that comments will become the new blog. In fact I spent the last 4 4 months creating the platform to make that a reality. We launch Jan 2009. Thanks Adam for reinforcing that we're on the right track!!! Komverse
Easton Ellsworth, TechStartups
· 11 months ago
Great stuff Adam, thanks.
Just for fun I'll disagree with you on the last prediction, the one about Twitter not going mainstream. The other day the water pressure in our small town suddenly failed. Long before the mainstream news reported on the day-long lack of running water, a Twitter user had confirmed the nature of the water pressure loss and more links to current news on the situation appeard on Twitter soon thereafter.
If Twitter can get a hold through little events like that, it can definitely go mainstream.
Location sumo
· 11 months ago
I would have liked to seen more specifics on what might happen. These predictions are just so vague
Michael Durwin
· 11 months ago
I'm not so sure about Twitter not going mainstream. It's exploding, for better or worse. My Follow additions are happening on a daily rate similar to what happened on a monthly rate last year.
Steven
· 11 months ago
True, email doesn't die - I guess social network sites are not the end of email after all. It is the spammers we have to keep fighting...
All Comments
news organizations go completely digital. I think you are spot-on with Twitter
and emerging 'commenting' technology.
on target than not for '09. Big question that may not play itself out in '09
but one that will eventually, is the role of the network (physical last mile) and
the companies that own them.
Whether MSO or Telco - or power company - how will they play in this space? What
impact will the "bits for bucks" have on social media and the exponential increase
in interactive/video/gaming content?
Will there be a "deal" - twitter on your TV? or will the content folks keep
trying to circumvent the network owners, while those that own the networks keep
trying to monetize their investment?
My Addition: A bit complicated with three steps (and you may know if a version of this exists)
Step 1) The addition of mini-forums added to the end of blog posts.
Step 2) Create a site like StumbleUpon with a NewsFeed and Wall like as Facebook (which I believe is one of its keys to growing popularity) with the ability to see our friends site/blog reviews and locations instanteously.
Step 3) Then we have the ability to go to that site/blog while our friend is there and discuss the content with them in the mini-forum attached to the blog.
2009 will be the year of Bright Neighbor.
Other developments that will impact us next year:
- LinkedIn Surge Continues: With great recession, comes great relationships.
- Mobile Video Growth: Flip becomes a verb (again). Think TiVo (no one says "DVR it").
- App Store Accelerates: More than one publisher will make at least $10MM from killer apps.
- Love of Live: Online or on mobile, live video streaming hits the mainstream faster than Twitter.
4 months creating the platform to make that a reality. We launch Jan 2009.
Thanks Adam for reinforcing that we're on the right track!!! Komverse
Just for fun I'll disagree with you on the last prediction, the one about Twitter not going mainstream. The other day the water pressure in our small town suddenly failed. Long before the mainstream news reported on the day-long lack of running water, a Twitter user had confirmed the nature of the water pressure loss and more links to current news on the situation appeard on Twitter soon thereafter.
If Twitter can get a hold through little events like that, it can definitely go mainstream.