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What's crucial for Google Wave, I think, it that the user's FIRST EXPERIENCE has to be a good one. Has to be like that moment you log in to Gmail after using hotmail and saying "Yeah. This makes sense. This is better." Or creating a Facebook account back in the day after being abused by MySpace for so long. "Wow. This is MUCH better. It just makes sense."
I think new users will stumble upon and reveal functionality as they use it. Like, "oh I just replied to this person --- WAIT! I can see what they're typing!?!? WOW!"
Not since the days of ICQ were you able to actively watch your friend type. And I think that was actually one of the biggest draws to ICQ. you could see it happen. And someone's typing has a way of body language that emoticons do not. Pauses, rephranes (sp?) , these things give away subtle hints of someone's feelings about something, and I believe it will add an additional element of emotion to email and instant messaging. Building image galleries, inserting games, and loading up invites to parties through the yes no widget will become "team building" because never before have we been able to, as a one to many interaction digitally, been able to build things together visually in real-time!
Think of how fascinating this will be to use!!
I've been building and testing Wave robots for a few months... I think Wave will provide the framework for a whole array of new online inventions
Who cares about IE if anything maybe this will force the rest of the world to stop using IE if they want to try something like this out.
Wave is well suited for quick messages and rich content, the ability for collaboration and instant communication are going to make it a must have for the social network group.
Nonetheless, I can see it doing very well, but a core user base is what it's going to have initially, a little bit like Twitter is now. Although unlike Twitter, Google has the marketing arm to really push it into the mainstream and have probably seen it as a commercial product right from the outset.
One thing is certain 65% of internet users still uses IE, Google has made the not really smart move not to release Chrome on Mac, and a lot of people don't even use Gmail.
So I doubt that it will replace emails, too many casual users don't even know what is a "browser" or a "plugin".
But slowly, and if surely, they can reach all other specialized audience: power users, corporation/organisation and schools.
Problem is: they seem to be only focusing on coders/developpers and most of them are just working on gadgets and robots that will never meet the needs or inovations that only professionals, marketers, promoters, artists or teachers can design.
I am, however, looking forward to the iPhone integration. I think Google Wave will start catching on a lot faster when people start seeing the tech-savy cool kids use it. Cuz then, like the iPhone vs. Blackberry, it'll be more about having fun and playing with your apps than it'll be about work and productivity.
PS roll on 2012 and the slow death of IE6
A flop? Hell, no.
A less successful product for Apple that was killed just as it was getting some traction? Absolutely.
Calling the Newton platform a “flop” is both unfair and inaccurate.
Thank you for the great discussions and background information.
Replace Email .. hmmm.... BIG POSSIBILITY! but need to give a big interesting facts for our old folks.. like "hey mom, I bought you an interactive multi-touch TV! MOM: ooooo... what's so interactive about.. i rather sit here and hand me that remote-control..."